An evaluation of software for probabilistic risk assessment
Sander, P., Bergbäck, B., Öberg, T.
Presentation vid 2005 Annual
Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, Orlando, Florida, 4-7 december
Abstract
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used extensively in the US to
estimate exposure risks from contaminated land. Until recently the acceptance
for PRA in Europe has been rather limited, but we now see a surge in interest.
The Swedish EPA has funded a study to investigate the requirements for a wider
application of PRA to adopt site specific remediation goals and a literature
review was recently completed [1]. We have also investigated the use of PRA in a
case study of a closed steel mill in southern Sweden applying Monte Carlo
simulation to a multimedia exposure model. The software used was Crystal Ball
from Decisioneering (Denver, CO), a MS Excel add-on. The next stage of the
project is now under way, with the purpose to also evaluate other tools and to
develop a guideline for the use of PRA in Sweden. The other two software
selected for evaluation are Analytica from Lumina Decision Systems (Los Gatos,
CA) and RAMAS Risk Calc from Applied Biomathematics (Setauket, NY). Our interest
in Analytica is primarily due to the visual approach and its potential to
enhance risk communication, which may remove a main obstacle for wider
acceptance of PRA. Risk Calc on other hand offers a different and complementary
approach to PRA using probability bounds, which could be useful in situations
when the input distributions are difficult to characterize. We are now in the
process of recalculating the previous case study with all three software. Our
evaluation will focus on both the methodological aspects and the practical
applicability. The ability to communicate results and answer to the requirements
of decision-makers and other stakeholders will be given a high priority. Some
preliminary findings will be presented.
1. Öberg, T.; Bergbäck, B. J Soils & Sediments, 5, 213-224 (2005)
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